Ecological non-linear state space model selection via adaptive particle Markov chain Monte Carlo (AdPMCMC)

We develop a novel advanced Particle Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm that is capable of sampling from the posterior distribution of non-linear state space models for both the unobserved latent states and the unknown model parameters. We apply this novel methodology to five population growth models, including models with strong and weak Allee effects, and test if it can efficiently sample from the complex likelihood surface that is often associated with these models. Utilising real and also synthetically generated data sets we examine the extent to which observation noise and process error may frustrate efforts to choose between these models. Our novel algorithm involves an Adaptive Metropolis proposal combined with an SIR Particle MCMC algorithm (AdPMCMC). We show that the AdPMCMC algorithm samples complex, high-dimensional spaces efficiently, and is therefore superior to standard Gibbs or Metropolis Hastings algorithms that are known to converge very slowly when applied to the non-linear state space ecological models considered in this paper. Additionally, we show how the AdPMCMC algorithm can be used to recursively estimate the Bayesian Cram\'er-Rao Lower Bound of Tichavsk\'y (1998). We derive expressions for these Cram\'er-Rao Bounds and estimate them for the models considered. Our results demonstrate a number of important features of common population growth models, most notably their multi-modal posterior surfaces and dependence between the static and dynamic parameters. We conclude by sampling from the posterior distribution of each of the models, and use Bayes factors to highlight how observation noise significantly diminishes our ability to select among some of the models, particularly those that are designed to reproduce an Allee effect

Adhesive coating eliminated in new honeycomb-core fabrication process

Technique eliminates use of silicone-based adhesive material as bonding medium. Adhesive requires precise time-temperature cure. Prepreg resin is used as bonding medium, and each layer is laminated together to form honeycomb billet. Process can be used in any application where nonmetallic honeycomb core is being fabricated

Energy efficient engine high-pressure turbine single crystal vane and blade fabrication technology report

The objective of the High-Pressure Turbine Fabrication Program was to demonstrate the application and feasibility of Pratt & Whitney Aircraft-developed two-piece, single crystal casting and bonding technology on the turbine blade and vane configurations required for the high-pressure turbine in the Energy Efficient Engine. During the first phase of the program, casting feasibility was demonstrated. Several blade and vane halves were made for the bonding trials, plus solid blades and vanes were successfully cast for materials evaluation tests. Specimens exhibited the required microstructure and chemical composition. Bonding feasibility was demonstrated in the second phase of the effort. Bonding yields of 75 percent for the vane and 30 percent for the blade were achieved, and methods for improving these yield percentages were identified. A bond process was established for PWA 1480 single crystal material which incorporated a transient liquid phase interlayer. Bond properties were substantiated and sensitivities determined. Tooling die materials were identified, and an advanced differential thermal expansion tooling concept was incorporated into the bond process

Influence of gaseous hydrogen on metals Interim report

Gaseous hydrogen embrittlement in Inconel 718, Inconel 625, AISI 321 stainless steel, Ti-5Al-25Sn ELI, and OFHC coppe

Acoustic spectral analysis and testing techniques

Subjects covered in four reports are described including: (1) mathematical techniques for combining decibel levels of octaves or constant bandwidth: (2) techniques for determining equation for power spectral density function; (3) computer program to analyze acoustical test data; and (4) computer simulation of horn responses utilizing hyperbolic horn theory

The application of semiconductors to quasi- optical isolators for use at submillimeter wavelengths

Semiconductor application to quasi-optical isolators - nonreciprocal reflection beam isolator and far infrared isolators using Faraday rotatio